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Paris Agreement Ocean Warming

The good news is that the world seems to be on track to avoid the worst-case scenario (RCP8.5) that would increase the current risk to the oceans almost three times. In our new study, published today in Nature Climate Change with colleagues from The Oceans 2015, we examine what global commitment to combating climate change means for the oceans. The Paris Agreement is an ambitious, dynamic and universal agreement. It covers all countries and emissions and is designed for total time. This is a monumental agreement. It strengthens international cooperation on climate change. It offers a way forward. The projected landing values are therefore a product of the ratio between the price and the volume of capture and the interaction between that catch (or offer) on the price. Changes to core values can then be minimized as a result of a price change. For example, a reduction in supply (MCP) will directly reduce the FR (which is × price), but a price increase due to a decrease in supply will compensate for the decline in landing values, the size being a function of the price flexibility of the product. Changes in core values during the year in which the target warming temperature is reached compared to 2001-10 were calculated for each warming scenario (up 1.5 and 3.5 degrees Celsius) due to changes in supply and prices. Changes to THE MCP (Figure 1, Indicator ii) and the FRs (Figure 1, Indicator iii) as a result of the achievement of the Paris Agreement warming target were estimated taking into account the difference between the variations in MCPs and FRes between the 1.5 and 3.5oC scenarios, which are warming scenarios for the expected variation of MCPs and FREs.

We use both observed GHG emissions and projected emissions to generate the 2030 trajectory series used in this study. Until 2014, MAGICC was used to deduct emissions from CMIP6`s historical GHG concentrations (34⇓-36). Emissions from the 2015-2030 Paris Agreement are taken from the 25-year-long promise scenario. The signaling pathway NDC 2030 is extended until 2100 with the constant quantum dilation described in Gothchev et al. (24). The translation of the pathway received in the greenhouse gas entry for the MAGICC climate carbon cycle model (17) is based on an updated Equal Quantile Walk (EQW) method, described in Meinshausen et al. (37). The updated EQW method uses databases of current scenarios (AR5, Shared Socio-Pathways and IPCC Special Report above 1.5oC of global warming), but the same method as the original EQW, based on previous scenarios such as the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios.

Overall, we show that the current level of global climate ambitions will increase the current risk to the oceans by 2.2 to 2.5 by 2100. The agreement is ambitious and offers all the instruments we need to combat climate change, reduce emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change. The text, presented with emotion by COP21 President Laurent Fabius, is the first binding universal climate agreement accepted by all UN member countries. The agreement, which will come into force in 2020, lays the groundwork for a gradual transition to a green, carbon-free economy by 2050. Assessing future sea level developments must address the major uncertainties that arise from it. While future reactions of thermal expansion and glaciers are fairly well understood, future reactions of ice caps, particularly the AIS with its GMSLR multimeter potential, remain poorly limited. The MICI hypothesis, proposed according to the IPCC AR5, leads to higher estimates for the future contribution of the AIS GMSLR, particularly in the context of a strong future warming (21, 22). However, given that MICI is still under discussion (22) and that new knowledge is expected for future work, we present only estimates of sea level rise, including IBD, as a sensitivity test.

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